Overconfidence in model projections
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Food for Thought Overconfidence in model projections
Keith Brander1*, Anna Neuheimer2, Ken Haste Andersen1, and Martin Hartvig1,3 Center for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU-Aqua) Technical University of Denmark Charlottenlund Castle, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA Center for Macroecology, ...
متن کاملA Model of Overconfidence
A Model of Overconfidence People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their own ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Overestimation of ability raises utility by deluding people into believing that they are m...
متن کاملDebiasing Expert Overconfidence: A Bayesian Calibration Model
In a decision and risk analysis, experts may provide subjective probability distributions that encode their beliefs about future uncertain events. For continuous variables, experts often provide these judgments in the form of quantiles of the distribution (e.g., 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles). Psychologists have shown, though, that such subjective distributions tend to be too narrow, represen...
متن کاملA Model of Overconfidence May 2006
People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their own ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Overestimation of ability raises utility by deluding people into believing that they are more able than they are in ...
متن کاملA Model of Overconfidence May 2004
People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their own ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Overestimation of ability raises utility by deluding people into believing that they are more able than they are in ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: ICES Journal of Marine Science
سال: 2013
ISSN: 1095-9289,1054-3139
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fst055